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来源 分析研究
26 五月 2020
Cbonds Group ACI for Argentinian floating-rate bonds (26.05.2020)
ICU Weekly Insight -- Staff level agreement with the IMF reached
Pengyuan International Electric cars development in Europe likely to see a policy tailwind
25 五月 2020
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor: May 25
Raiffeisen Bank Aval Focus Ukraine (Issue 3, April 2020)
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (22 May 2020)
22 五月 2020
Hong Leong Bank Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
21 五月 2020
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin OFZ: Going Below 6%
描述
Last Friday the yield of the longest OFZ dropped below 6% for the first time ever. Strong demand from both domestic and international investors not only pushed the curve down, but also allowed the Finance Ministry to set a new single day placement record this Wednesday — R169 bln. Market participants are anticipating further rate cuts from the CBR, international investors play this bet with the help of ruble sovereigns. The expected launch of the long-term REPO facility by the CBR at the end of June will offer an attractive carry trade opportunity for local commercial banks, which should support their demand for OFZ. As a result, the Finance Ministry feels now it is a good time to increase the amount of placements and is likely to use this chance to the maximum. This effort may slow down yield compression on the secondary market, but the trend is likely to remain.   GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020. To receive full-text report, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
20 五月 2020
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (May 13 - 19, 2020)
19 五月 2020
ICU Weekly Insight -- Parliament passes banking law
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
18 五月 2020
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russian Macro: Budget Execution, Balance of Payments Suggest Russian Economy is Adjusting
描述
The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget revenue flow was strong last month as the non-oil-and-gas revenues soared by over 76% y-o-y and reached R1.836 trln. As a result, the budget posted a small surplus in April even though the expenditures exceeded R2.26 trln, which is very high, as the 1Q20 federal budget expenditures totaled R4.62 trln. The revenue flow in April was very strong due to the so-called “other non-tax income”. In this case this transaction was associated with the sale of the CBR’s controlling stake in Sberbank to the Ministry of Finance. This transaction assumes Minfin’s spending some cash from the National Wealth Fund and transferring it to the CBR in return for Sberbank equity. The CBR receives profit from the deal and according to the Russian regulations the bulk of this profit is due to be transferred to the federal budget, so the "profit" received by the CBR was almost immediately transferred back to the government. Such a transaction looked as accounting Minfin’s spending of the reserves as revenues, while normally spending of reserves is treated as financing the budget deficit. The 4M20 budget execution numbers showed that the expected budget deficit remains manageable and is expected to stay at R4.6 trln (around 4% of GDP). However, if the budget accounting is adjusted for the “Sberbank sale” transaction (i. e. revenues are down and the deficit is up as mentioned above) then the deficit will formally exceed 5% of GDP. --- The government already spent 35% of the annual target in 4M20, which has not yet been officially amended as the debate on additional spending and other measures to support the economy, such as state guarantees, is still pending. In 4M20 federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.12 trln. --- Despite the low oil price, Russia’s balance of payments looked strong: according to the CBR’s preliminary estimate, the current account posted surplus in 4M20 and in April. This surplus reached $23.5 bln in 4M20 implying around $1.8 bln surplus in April alone. As the oil price fell (as said, the Urals blend price averaged $22.5/bbl that month) imports also should have fallen significantly. This goes well in line with the aforementioned budget execution statistics which posted a deep contraction of VAT on imported goods. Based on the budgetary statistics it could be estimated that imports contracted by more than 25% in April. --- GKEM Analytica can currently expect the trade surplus of at least $65 bln this year as a whole, which may be almost fully offset by the traditionally strongly negative income balance (including primary and secondary income) and negative services balance. Note that in the early year these two deficits as seasonally relatively small and are set to widen in the rest of the year. --- Hence, even in case of a very negative income balance the current account is expected to retain a small surplus in 2020. However, it may turn negative in some months (for instance, when foreign debt servicing peaks). If the oil price keeps going up, the surplus will widen.   GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020. To receive full-text report, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (May 18, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (May 18, 2020)
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (15 May 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
15 五月 2020
Hong Leong Bank Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
14 五月 2020
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
13 五月 2020
Pengyuan International China set to metamorphosize with the transition toward electric vehicles
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