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来源 分析研究
27 二月 2020
Finance Ministry of Ukraine Ukraine: Investor Presentation (February 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
26 二月 2020
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
25 二月 2020
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly Digest (February 19 - 25, 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
24 二月 2020
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russian Economic Trends: Economy is Not What is Seems
As the Russian economy reportedly grew by a mere 1.3% in 2019 and this rate of growth looks much lower than the revised 2.5% in 2018, the key question now is not only what has caused this deceleration but where the economy is heading to in 2020.  Rosstat reported that industrial output was up just 1.1% in January, seemingly implying a rather slow start for the year. Manufacturing, however, expanded by a more impressive 3.9% y-o-y, which was on par with the 4Q19 y-o-y growth (also 3.9%). Mining, power generation and supply of heat and energy contracted in January due to extremely warm weather in the European part of Russia and should be treated as a one-off effect. Therefore, it would be too early to talk about a sharp overall deceleration in industry yet. Very strong tax collection in January from the non-oil-and-gas segments of the economy (up 16.7% y-o-y) can also hint that the economic activity was not so bad amid decelerating inflation. January 2020 statistics looked much better on the consumer side as retail sales were up 2.7% y-o-y versus 2.0% in 4Q19. Consumer payable services increased by 1.9%, and real wage was up 2.9% y-o-y. Disinflation helped to improve considerably the situation on the consumer market. Household consumption could expand by around 2.5% this year as its two major proxies (retail sales and payable services) are set to deliver about the same rate of growth in 2020. Given that the household consumption represents around half of GDP by end use it will be the main pillar of economic growth this year. --- Rosstat suddenly decided to switch to fixed 2018 prices instead of previously used 2016 prices as a benchmark, meaning that weights of subsectors in industry changed, and this change caused a very strong upward revision of the 2018 industrial growth (from 2.9% to 3.5%). Normally the base year is subject to change every five years. --- A rather uneven performance in various sectors of the economy is probably one of the reasons which encouraged Rosstat to change the base year early as the nominal structure of Russia’s GDP changed even more.  --- The nominal weights of several important segments of the economy changed just in two years from 2016 to 2018 quite significantly. Due to the ongoing adjustment of relative prices the nominal share of mining increased from 9.6% to 13.2% of gross value added. The share of manufacturing also increased quite strongly in nominal prices.  --- Going forward, trends in industry (in mining and manufacturing in particular) will have a much greater impact on GDP growth as the combined weight of mining and manufacturing in nominal 2018 prices reached 27.5% of gross value added (up from 22.63% in 2016).   GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020.For subscription, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Feb. 24, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Feb. 24, 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
21 二月 2020
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (21 February 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
20 二月 2020
Lianhe Ratings Global 联合国际授予绿景的发行人和拟发行的美元债券‘BB-’评级
Lianhe Ratings Global Lianhe Global Assigns ‘BB-’ to LVGEM’s Issuer Rating and its Upcoming USD bonds
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
19 二月 2020
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Interest rates correct
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Income Weekly Digest (February 12 - 18, 2020)
18 二月 2020
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
17 二月 2020
ICU Weekly Insight -- GDP rises 3.2% in 2019
ICU Фінансовий тижневик -- Економіка виросла на 3.2% у 2019 р.
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Feb. 17, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Feb. 17, 2020)
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